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Paul Krugman is a very smart guy. I get that. He is a Nobel laureate in economics, advises presidents and routinely appears on talk shows. The only thing we have in common is that we both have B.A.’s in economics. So it’s good to know that even he can go too far, like the rest of us mere mortals.

In an enlightening piece in the New York Times Magazine, Mr. Krugman gives an 8000 word dissertation on the economics of climate change.  Everyone should read it.  He spends the first 2000 words discussing the types of economic solutions that can be used to address climate change and concludes that a workable, market-based approach to regulation, such as cap and trade, is the logical solution. It is a great explanation of a confusing subject.  He should have stopped there. But he didn’t:

This is an article on climate economics, not climate science. But  [insert Wilhelm Scream here]  before we get to the economics, it’s worth establishing three things about the state of the scientific debate.

Mr. Krugman then feels compelled to discuss the science of climate change -- something in which he is not an expert. He makes the same conclusory statements that are the hallmark of climate change advocates and quickly falls into the compulsory lexicon of massive destruction:

“the upward trend [in temperature] is unmistakable”

“precipitation pattern will change . . . sea levels will rise”

"a rise in global temperatures that will be little short of apocalyptic"

“we will eventually face drastic changes in the climate”

“we’re talking about massively disruptive events, like the transformation of the Southwestern United States into a permanent dust bowl over the next few decades”

“avoiding planetary catastrophe is a lot more important”

It’s not that I disagree with any of his doom and gloom conclusions -- it’s that he isn’t a believable messenger. He doesn’t have the scientific background to support his statements. He’s just undermining his own credibility.  And for what?  Let others with the proper credentials get into that fight (and they will).

Now if Paul Krugman wants to opine on matters outside of his areas of expertise and wants to do so using incendiary and calamitous language, far be it from me to tell him otherwise.  However, it will inevitably cause some people to view him as a politician rather than an economist.  Once that happens, about half of the people will stop listening, no matter how much sense he makes.  And that would be a catastrophe.

RELATED POST:  The Precautionary Principle and Climate Change

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Most of those keeping track are aware that on December 7, 2009, EPA announced its endangerment finding (that greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare) and followed that up with a final rule a week later. As expected, a number of entities immediately brought action to challenge that finding.

The first case was filed in the D.C. Circuit and is entitled Coalition for Responsible Regulation, Inc. v. EPA.  Since that filing, a total of sixteen other petitions have been filed and have been consolidated with the Coalition case. These include an action by the American Iron and Steel Institute, Gerdau Amsteel Corp., American Farm Bureau Federation, National Mining Association, Peabody Energy Company, Massey Energy Company, Rosebud Mining Company, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Southeastern Legal Foundation, Inc. on behalf of fifteen House Republicans and business associations. Additionally, the states of Alabama, Virginia, Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Nebraska, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah are joining with the objectors.

On the other side, sixteen states are seeking to intervene in support of EPA. Those states are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont,  Washington, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

Setting aside the business interests that are supporting the action (which motivation is fairly easy to identify), it is interesting to analyze the political interests involved. The attorneys general of each state would make the decision of whether the state should participate in the lawsuit.  Of the seventeen states that are seeking to overturn the EPA determination, all but three have Republican attorneys general (and those three have Republican legislatures). With regard to the sixteen states that are supporting EPA, fourteen of them have Democratic attorneys general (the remaining two have Democratic legislatures).  

In a totally unrelated note, I notice that the National Journal conducted a poll of political bloggers recently. Those bloggers that reported to be right-leaning were asked if it is was in the Republicans’ interest to work with the Democrats on Wall Street reform? 71% of the bloggers said no. The same question was put to the left-leaning bloggers about Democrats and 67% said no.  This is not an isolated finding or sentiment.

Based on these observations, and the recent fight over health care reform (with a second battle coming according to Congressman Steve King), it isn't hard to conclude that bipartisanship, as a political concept, is dead in the United States. It has been for a number of years and it will be for the foreseeable future. What’s more, while lip service is given to the need for some sort of give and take between the parties, it doesn't appear that either the politicians or the electorate really expect, or even want, bipartisanship.  The import of this, for those that are interested in legislative sausage-making, is that the future holds many more battles like we saw with health care reform, and I suspect that this will be particularly evident when it comes time to address environmental and energy issues.

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It appears that the Obama EPA believes that it's pretty hard to measure something if you don't put a number on it.  We're seeing this philosophy play out in the area of imposing discharge limits, where it has become clear that EPA prefers numeric standards over narrative or descriptive standards.

For example, for more than fifteen years, stormwater discharge permitting from construction sites has relied on the use of “best management practices” or the installation of barriers to slow down runoff (such as silt fences or detention basins). When this was properly done, the stormwater regulations were routinely viewed as being satisfied. That has now changed. EPA, for the first time, has imposed a discharge standard of 280 NTUs on stormwater leaving the construction site. The proposed numeric standard was going to be 13 NTUs, but, after participants at public hearings pointed out that this was virtually impossible to meet, EPA switched to 280 NTUs.

Similarly, EPA has, for the first time, implemented a numeric standard for suspended solids that may enter streams from mountaintop mining sites. The solids will be measured through stream conductivity, with a cap of 500 uS/cm. According to EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, there are “no or very few valley fields that are going to meet this standard.” EPA is taking public comment on this proposed standard until December 1, 2010 but has made it effective immediately.

Moving to air regulation, EPA has finalized a greenhouse gas emission limit from cars and light trucks at an average of 250 grams per mile of carbon dioxide in 2016. This would be the first nation-wide greenhouse gas emission limit to be adopted by the United States.

For anyone who thinks that this trend is going unnoticed by those who watch this sort of thing, I would point out that Sierra Club has renewed its request to EPA to set, for the first time, numeric water quality standards for nitrogen and phosphorus. Nitrogen and phosphorus are the primary pollutants in the dead zone found in the Gulf of Mexico.  Should EPA be inclined to impose such a numeric standard, and if recent attempts to regulate non-point sources are successful, the change could have an immediate impact on farming, which, while being the primary source of income in many states, is also the primary source of nitrogen and phosphorus contamination in lakes, streams and rivers.

Businesses should take note of this direction. Numeric standards can be very difficult on regulated entities. These standards are much easier to enforce than descriptive or narrative standards and they eliminate all discussions of what is fair or reasonable or necessary based on differences in circumstances or locales. Except in the actual creation of the standard, there is no cost/benefit analysis employed. The only question is whether the discharge of the regulated substance is above or below the regulated level, and where that number is put can determine whether you are in, or out of, business.

RELATED POSTS: New Stormwater Regulatuions Rain Down on Developers 

                             Stormwater Regulation of Developed Sites Coming?

                             Agricultural Runoff Comes Under Scrutiny

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