Wine and Global Warming: An Open Letter to the President

 

Dear Mr. President,

With all due respect, I feel that I must warn you that you are on the brink of losing one of your biggest support groups – wine drinkers. Allow me to explain.

Wine has always been one of my guilty pleasures -- and I'm not alone.  Wine consumption in the United States has been, and continues to be, on an extraordinary growth path.  That means an ever-increasing base of fairly myopic (and, at certain times of the day, malleable) voters.  For example, in 2008, a close friend of mine told me that he was a single issue voter: You promised to do something about global warming, so you got his vote.  This is because climate change is having a huge impact on grape growing and, therefore, wine making. 

My point is that all of this economic stimulus and health care talk is fine and good, but I don’t want you to take your eye off of the really important issue -- wine, . . . uh, I mean climate change. So here are a few facts to consider:

When it comes to identifying global warming, grape production is the canary in the coal mine. Very small temperature increases result in immediate, and large, changes in the ability to grow great grapes. For example:

  •     In Australia:

--    Up to 1000 growers will be faced with the decision of ceasing operations due to increasingly hot harvests;

--    By 2050, 44% of current grape-grown areas are likely to be negatively affected by rising temperatures.

  •     In France:

--    In 20 to 30 years, Burgundy, France, will be too warm to plant its classic-prized varietal, pinot noir (now I realize that it’s just pinot, but still);

--    Winemakers warn that failure to cut greenhouse gases will devastate their area;

--    A group of 50 winemakers predicted that vineyards will move 600 miles past their traditional boundaries by the end of the century if nothing is done now.

  •      England is now able to produce prize-winning vintages thanks to the warming conditions (Mr. President, ENGLAND! Sure they’re our friends but they really can’t be trusted with cars or grapes).
  •         In California, the Napa Valley will become as warm as Modesto. Modesto will become as warm as Stockton. Stockton will become as warm as Bakersfield (can cats and dogs raining down from the heavens be far behind?).

I know what you’re saying. Your saying that this just means that grape growing in Oregon and Washington will improve, but are there really enough votes to care what happens there?

Let me put it another way. Isn’t it at least possible that Sarah Palin has dropped out of the political scene because she sees what’s coming and is buying up prime Alaskan grape growing land? Do you really want to see Palin Insignia? Do you really want to be responsible for Sarah Palin becoming the replacement for the late, great Robert Mondavi as the American winemaking icon? I didn’t think so.

For my sake, your sake and Alaska’s sake, you must redouble your efforts to address climate change.

To be sure that my message is getting through, let me approach the issue from a more scientific angle. I’ve just completed some research on global warming. Between 1970 and 2008, the five-year mean temperature has drastically increased. In fact, the increase during this period is greater than the same increase for more than the previous 100 years.

Now, let’s take a look at what that has done to wine. Robert Parker (he is to wine what you are to Democratic politics) rates the quality of wine each year for all of the world’s wine producing areas. A year that scores 90 or higher is considered “Outstanding.” Looking at 90-point years for France (Pomerol), Italy (Piedmont - Barolo), California Cabernets, Oregon (Willamette Valley) and Washington Cabernets as reported by The Wine Advocate, we find:

 

1970-1978

1979-1988

1989-1998

1999-2008

Pomerol

2

2

4

5

Piedmont

3

5

6

9

California

3

3

8

7

Oregon

X

1

2

4

Washington

X

2

3

7

 

Uh . . .wait a minute. Let me think about this.  During the period of extreme warming, the number of great wine vintages have actually increased, thanks to climate change. That means that, at least in the short term, warmer is better for grapes.  Sure, this can only go on for another 15 or 20 years, but at this rate that means another 12 to 15 spectacular wine vintages. I’ll have plenty of wine to last me through my waning years. True, I probably won’t be able to drink them outdoors, but that’s a sacrifice a truly dedicated oenophile is willing to make.   Hmmm . . .well . . . .in that case.

Mr. President, kindly disregard this letter.

                                                                                                      Whining No More,

                                                                                                                        Chuck Becker

                                                                           

 

                                                                       


 

Game Theory and the Environment: We All Want To Win

Bipartisan environmental legislation has long been an oxymoron.  This isn't surprising considering how the parties approach the issues.  However, I think it is safe to say that competition knows no political party. That is, whether we admit it to ourselves or not, we all want to win. Since a competitive spirit is a bipartisan concept, why couldn’t Congress learn to use it to its advantage?


I put this question out there because of a recent post in the Wall Street Journal, “Vroom per Gallon: Toyota Prius vs. VW Clean Diesel.” It is an interesting piece about the relative merits of the Toyota Prius and the VW Jetta TDI Clean Diesel. When I finished the article, I was unimpressed with either car (no matter how you paint boring, it’s still boring), but one comment made by the author, Ana Campoy, did catch my attention. Ana said that the Prius has a monitor that tracks energy use and “makes a game out of getting the highest mileage.” She noted that she watches the diagram whenever she drives and that she and her husband have been “trying to beat our personal best for months: an average of 49 MPG.”  She called it the Prius Effect.


I got to thinking about those statements and I realized that she was right. Not too long ago I bought a car that has the ability to monitor the mileage, and now I do so on a constant basis.   Until I bought that car, the concept of miles per gallon was purely theoretical. Certainly I wanted to save gallons because it meant saving money. Did I really change my driving habits to do so? Not for a minute.  But put a gauge in front of me that can be manipulated to go to a higher number if I’m really “good” at driving, and suddenly I’m all about winning . . . uh, I mean, economy. I think you would be too. And more importantly, I think you would be whether you are a Democrat or a Republican.

I should note that, perhaps not surprisingly, my attention to the gauge has made a difference.  After six months, my average has gone up 2 mpg.  Obviously, if that had been a change from 46 to 48 mpg it would have been more impressive than, say, 17 to 19 mpg.  Still, as far as the environment is concerned, the relative change is significant. Multiply this by a few million cars and you've put a big dent in the air pollution problem. 


The age old maxim “out of sight, out of mind,” is one that our elected representatives should consider. If they want to increase car mileage, which depends to a significant degree on driving habits, then don’t hide the information where it is out of sight.  Maybe Congress could interfere a lot less, and still do a lot more, if it considered passing a law that required these kind of monitors.  Why not harness that competitive spirit that knows no party line?

I’ll let someone else crunch the numbers, but I would guess that a fairly modest expense could result in a substantial increase in actual miles per gallon without getting into the political mess of this trading caps thing.  I can just see the new slogan at General Motors -- GM: You Can Watch The Savings!