Environmental Legislation Won't Wait For China
Mediation of legal disputes (as opposed to time-consuming and expensive trials) has been a great benefit to the justice system. In mediation, the parties voluntarily meet with a neutral third party who listens to both sides and then splits the parties up. The mediator shuttles between the parties and tries to broker a deal to end the dispute. The success rate is remarkably high.
I’ve had the opportunity to participate in many mediations and I have found that sometime early in the process, after the parties have been split up, you’ll inevitably hear the following finger-pointing exchange between one party and the mediator:
Party 1 (with a slight pout): “They are really bad people. They’re doing bad things and they need to be the first one to make an offer.”
Mediator: “Ok, I’ll go talk to them.”
The mediator goes to the other party and hears:
Party 2 (with an air of indignation): “These people are the real villains. Their demands are outrageous. We can’t possibly make any offer. Tell them to make a reasonable proposal.”
Mediator: “Ok, let me talk to them.”
This goes back and forth until one party finally realizes that making 
the first move isn’t the end of the world, and an offer is made, and then countered, and on it goes until a resolution is reached. That first offer can take five minutes or five hours. It doesn’t matter too much to the mediator – he/she is being paid by the hour. And the mediator knows something the other two parties don’t; that is, sooner or later, someone will make the first offer.
When it comes to international climate change action, China (and India) and the United States are at the beginning of the mediation. Everyone is finger pointing:
U.S.: “China is beginning to be a huge contributor to CO2 emissions. They must commit to a huge reduction."
China: “The U.S. has historically generated much more CO2 than China and has done nothing over the last eight years. The U.S. needs to make the commitment to change, and then we’ll see what we’ll do.”
U.S.: “We’re not going to pass climate change legislation until China does."
China: “ We won’t move.”
Let me shorten this mediation by about four hours by making a suggestion – United States, pass your legislation. Be the first to make the offer. Keep the pressure on China (consider trade policy, for example), but take the lead. You're just wasting a lot of effort if you insist that China take action at the same time.
Further, though it certainly has significant environmental problems, it isn’t as though China is just sitting on its 2.6 billion hands. Pop quiz: As between the U.S. and China, which country:
- Committed to reduce the energy intensity of its economy – energy used per dollar of goods produced – by 20% in five years?
- Will increase its total installed capacity for solar power 75 times in just over ten years?
- Plans to install 100 million energy-efficient light bulbs in 2009?
- Has committed $462 billion to scaling up renewable energy by 2020?
- Has increased wind power by 100% in each of the last four years?
- Is the world’s top producer of solar photovoltaic panels?
- Has the more stringent automotive fuel economy standards?
- Invested $12 billion in renewable energy in 2009, placing it second in the world in absolute dollars spent, just behind Germany?
- In 2009 will be the largest installer of wind power.
The correct answer to each question is China. I’ve graded the quiz. The West Coast did well and the Midwest was great but you people on the East Coast, particularly the D.C. area, failed miserably.
My point is that if the U.S. goes first, it won’t be the end of the world. (I won’t pull an Al Gore and say that if we don’t go first, it will be the end of the world. I wouldn’t do that.) Whether its cap and trade, nuclear, or something more creative, legislation is going to happen. I'm not saying that that is good or bad, just that the genie is out of that bottle. Insisting that China must act benefits no one – unless you’re being paid by the hour.
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